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Bull/Bear Report -- Elan Pharmaceuticals - A miracle for patients and investors alike?

Psychology of the market is everything and right now that psychology is decidedly negative.  As such, stock values are depressed as participants toss the baby with the bathwater.

Even the positive stories are seeing dampened enthusiasm.  Take our stock of the week, Elan Corp. plc (ELN).  The company announced success with an early trial of its Alzheimer drug, bapineuzumab, earlier in the month.

Shares moved higher on the news, but not nearly what they would have done had there been positive sentiment in the market.

Think about it.  A biotechnology company shows positive success for a drug that aids treatment of a very horrible disease affecting millions and potentially millions more down the road.

Can you say blockbuster?

Shoot, in a bull market this stock would be skyrocketing right now.  Not ELN. 

Learn more about Elan's latest drug, and find out how our bloggers come down in this week's Bull/Bear Report.

Bull/Bear Report : CASY - No general consensus on Casey General Stores

These weekly bull/bear articles have been a pleasant surprise for me. With each week's selection, I am always surprised to learn something new and informative that helps me determine valuation.

I may not always agree with the opinions here, but that is exactly the point.

In the case of this week's selection of Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) my valuation was solidified with some of the views expressed by bloggers.

Specifically, it never dawned on me that convenience stores may see increases in sales due to high gasoline prices. The thought being that the cost to save a dime by driving further to a big box store would negate any benefits.

Thus, we should see more volume at the local convenience store that can charge a bit more for that convenience. The best part of such behavior is that it becomes habitual. Even if oil prices subside consumers may prefer buying milk for the convenience and reduction in carbon footprint.

CASY has already done a good job at managing during these difficult times. They are controlling expenses and look to exploit their some 3,000 food and non-food items. Eliminating credit card usage would be another way to save.

Goldman Kicks Citiroup While It Is Down

It is just not getting any better for Citigroup. Yesterday a Goldman Sachs report not only suggested selling Citi shares, the recommended selling the shares short as part of bank stock paired trade. The Goldman analyst suggested that the bank would have to write down another $8.9 billion in assets. Tis would be on top ogf the 446 billion in losses since the credit crisis began last August. He also thinks they may have to cut the dividend again. Under this scenario Citigroup will once again have to raise capital from outside sources. So far they have had to turn to foreign Sovereign Investment funds and other large investors for $42 billion in capital.

Citigroup continues to attempt to restructure and refocus its business. There are reports that several of their Indian operations are going to be for sale shortly. Operations being discussed include its technology outsourcing operation as well its back office operations. The divisions could be worth as much as $1 billion according to some reports. Layoffs continue at the bank as well with as many as 300 jobs are expected to be cut in the sales and trading operations in the next month. These were part of the 6000 job cut announced back in April and will bring the total job loss at Citigroup to around 13,000 in 2008.

Citigroup stock is now down 65% in the past 52 weeks and trades at a 10 year low. Given the Goldman report and prediction for the second quarter, shares seem unlikely to rebound significantly any time soon.


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Will July 4th Weekend Bring A Rally? Or Panic? Or Both?

Time for a context check.

There will be a bear market rally at some point. The beginning of a bear market rally never feels good--usually you're so sick of the downtrend that you want to puke up your stocks at the first sign of better prices. Are we close to that point? I don't know. I should mention that I didn't sell any of my short ETFs today, although I was tempted. What stopped me? The panic didn't seem panicky enough.

The market's been going down--almost straight down--for around a month now. Sentiment is terrible, and the word "bear" is being used more than the word "bottom." These are ingredients for a counter-trend bounce. Even a smallish bounce could cause shorts to cover, which would push stocks up quickly. The sharpest rallies, they say, occur in bear markets.
Traders want a big capitulation day (extreme selling) and a huge reversal (extreme buying) to signal a turn in the bearish trend. This type of volatility is measured by the Volatility Index, a.k.a. "the VIX", a.k.a. the "fear gauge."

Randall LaBine sees a pattern of bottoms around holiday weekends. Will this one be different? Read more...


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Top 3 Techniques to Get You Through the Tough Times

If there's anything investors crave in these unsettled times, it's stability. They're looking for a little peace of mind. But where do you find it? Many folks look in the wrong places and come up disappointed. You don't have to be one of those people.

With three reliable techniques you can control your risk in today's roller-coaster markets. With a stable base under you, you can reach for all the great growth opportunities that our dynamic global economy has to offer.

1. The first, and most crucial, risk-control technique is to maintain an adequate reserve of cash and near-cash instruments. During market panics, it's often said that "liquidity has dried up." What is liquidity? In simple terms, it's the ability to turn your investments into cash, quickly, without having to accept a fire-sale price.

If you're holding plenty of cash, liquidity is never an issue. You can always meet your day-to-day obligations without being forced to sell stocks or equity mutual funds at disadvantageous prices. Better yet, your cash (because it pays interest) grows even when market fluctuations may have knocked down the value of your other investments. Thus, cash tends to cushion the shock of market declines.

Get two more hot tips from Richard Band on how to keep risk out of your portfolio here.

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Will China Meddling Save Chinese Markets?

That's the problem with free markets: when they are making everyone money, they're the best thing since electronic trading. When they are going into the toilet, everyone collectively curses, assigns blame, and jumps out the nearest window--Unless you happen to be in a pseudo-free market, like China.

The Chinese markets are in turmoil right now, clocking a 40% plus loss since last October--and we think we have it bad. For those with money in FXP, the ultrashort China ETF, it's been a money-maker. However, there have been some bumps in the road. Since last October, FXP has climbed upwards of $120 before correcting back to below $60. FXP is now in the mid 80's because of the latest market shock waves, and it doesn't look pretty for the Chinese markets.

Or does it?

Jonathan Coyle thinks the time is right for Chinese leaders to intervene. Find out his predictions here.

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